Methods to Adjust for Confounding in Test-Negative Design COVID-19 Effectiveness Studies: Simulation Study

Elizabeth AK Rowley   ¹ , DrPH ;   Patrick K Mitchell   ¹ , ScD ;   Duck-Hye Yang   ¹ , PhD ;   Ned Lewis   ² , MPH ;   Brian E Dixon   ^{3, 4} , MPA, PhD ;   Gabriela Vazquez-Benitez   ⁵ , PhD ;   William F Fadel   ^{3, 4} , PhD ;   Inih J Essien   ⁵ , MPH, OD ;   Allison L Naleway   ⁶ , PhD ;   Edward Stenehjem   ⁷ , MSc, MD ;   Toan C Ong   ⁸ , PhD ;   Manjusha Gaglani   ^{9, 10} , MBBS ;   Karthik Natarajan   ^{11, 12} , PhD ;   Peter Embi   ^{3, 13} , MS, MD ;   Ryan E Wiegand   ¹⁴ , PhD ;   Ruth Link-Gelles   ¹⁴ , MPH, PhD ;   Mark W Tenforde   ¹⁴ , MD, PhD ;   Bruce Fireman   ² , MA

¹ Westat, Rockville, MD, United States

² Vaccine Study Center, Northern California Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente, Oakland, CA, United States

³ Center for Biomedical Informatics, Regenstrief Institute, Indianapolis, IN, United States

⁴ Fairbanks School of Public Health, Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN, United States

⁵ HealthPartners Institute, Minneapolis, MN, United States

⁶ Center for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente, Portland, OR, United States

⁷ Division of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Epidemiology, Intermountain Healthcare, Salt Lake City, UT, United States

⁸ Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, United States

⁹ Department of Pediatrics, Section of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Baylor Scott & White Health, Temple, TX, United States

¹⁰ Department of Medical Education, Texas A&M University College of Medicine, Killeen, TX, United States

¹¹ Department of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, United States

¹² New York Presbyterian Hospital, New York, NY, United States

¹³ Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, United States

¹⁴ National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States